Following the Behaviour of the Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)


Following the Behaviour of the Jet Stream (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.)

By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD. CV english and español. Resume.

ResearchGate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.22052.58246

 


The 18th of Nov 2015 the Met Office has advised the population of UK to be prepared for a sudden change in the conditions of the weather for this weekend, turning for colder conditions.

“Cold weather is expected this weekend courtesy of an arctic maritime airmass spreading across the country from the north. Everyone will notice a change in the weather after the second mildest start to November on record.

In a stark contrast to recent days when temperatures have been well above average for the time of year, we can expect temperatures to be below average with maximum daytime values of around 3-7 degrees Celsius. Overnight minimum temperatures are likely to drop below freezing away from coasts, to give a widespread frost, with the risk of some icy patches where showers have fallen during the day.”

On Friday the cold air will begin to spread southwards with showers falling as snow over high ground in the north and increasingly to lower levels here later. Across northern and eastern Scotland and the northeast of England accumulations of 1-4cm are likely in places at low levels, whereas above around 150m around 5-10cm could accumulate. Furthermore, overnight Friday and into Saturday other areas of the UK could see snow, with some accumulations possible, mainly over high ground.

Strong to gale force north or northwesterly winds are also likely Friday night and Saturday across central and southern Britain and will enhance the cold feel in what will be the coldest air of the season so far. There is a risk of severe gales with gusts of 60-70mph in the most exposed locations.

Yellow ‘be aware’ National Severe Weather Warnings have been issued for the risk of impacts as a result of the snow and wind.”

Similar change is also expected in North America. (accuweather.com)

“Following recent mild weather, some of the coldest air of the season so far will impact much of the nation east of the Rockies from this weekend into early next week.

The cold will dive southward on the heels of a storm that will bring a plowable snowfall to portions of the Midwest Friday and Saturday.

“After the snow comes to an end, a surge of cold air will rush into the Upper Midwest this weekend,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Becky Elliott.”

A wobbly Polar Jet Stream

The possibility of facing a weakening Jet Stream due to a decrease in the Thermal contrast between the Subtropical and Polar atmospheric regions has created scenarios in which the variations in meteorological conditions for a particular location can come without a transition. One week is pretty warm and the next freezing cold. How can that happen?

Polar masses of air and warm mid-latitude masses create a thermal contrast which generates powerful winds moving from west to east, called the Polar Jet Stream. The differences are not only in temp, also humidity and therefore, density. As a result, we can see the behaviour of the boundary layer in motion as two fluids mixing in a turbulent flow.

Here I have prepared an animation with the forecast generated from the 18th November to the 29th 2015 by the GFS model, applying images generated by Metogroup. This animation illustrate the actual state of the Polar Jet Stream in temp and pressure at 500mb, and the conditions in the mixing layer generating the weather events associated for North America and Europe.

Following the Behaviour of the Jet Stream

Back on November 14, 2014, I published an article discussing the reasons behind the wobbly behaviour of the Jet Stream and its consequence on weather events. One year later I can use a portion of this publication, with the same words, to explain what the previous video shows over the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream.

Why there is no need for the Polar Vortex to break in order to have a wobbling Jet Stream and polar weather? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla) Posted on November 14, 2014.

Implications in the State of the Climate

Based on the present atmospheric circulation, it seems that there is an agreement between present atmospheric circulation and all the clues gathered in a previous post addressing the possible configuration of the Polar vortex and Jet Stream for this winter. The only missing link is that there is no need to have a broken Polar Vortex in order to have a wobbly Jet Stream and all the weather events associated.

Based on previous comments presented here and in previous posts, I purpose for discussion a theory to explain the behaviour of the Polar Vortex, Jet Stream and Atmospheric Circulation at global scale. A decrease in the differential gradient of energy in altitude would allow cyclonic and anticyclonic events to not dissipate their energy easily, and consequently to grow in altitude and resilience reducing the differential gradient of energy between Polar and Sub-polar circulation, weakening the steadiness of the Jet Stream to keep unbroken.

atmospheric_circulation

 If my intuition is right, based on what I shared in the other post giving “A New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation.“, it will become more frequent to see polar masses of air getting introduced in lower latitudes as part of having a low differential gradient of energy between the Jet Stream and cyclonic (L and H) events, allowing frequent transition of masses of air getting from both sides of the Jet Stream.

Masses of air crossing the Jet Stream

Actually, even considering that such exchange it has been always there throughout past Winters, if my theory is right, this pattern of unsteady Jet Stream and masses of air crossing through would start earlier in Autumn and resume closer to summer.

The transition from Summer to Winter and from Winter to Summer will be a transition between “more frequent exchange of masses of air” to “less frequent”. Instead of having a constant gradual change in atmospheric conditions, we will have pockets of air moving across the Jet stream defining the weather wherever they move.

In more recent publications, I have extended my interpretation over the mechanisms involved and the teleconnections implicated. All the data supplied and analyses that I have performed looking at the state of related players seem to support my points of view.

Back in March 7th 2015 I also discussed the behaviour of the Jet Stream and published a video illustrating the wobbly behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream. However, if in the present post we can see its behaviour in the period of transition from Summer to Winter, in the previous article I showed the transition between Winter to Summer:

Drops of weather by Diego Fdez-Sevilla
https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/2015/03/07/drops-of-weather-by-diego-fdez-sevilla/

The wobbliness of the Jet Stream means unstable interchange of masses of air between both sides. The cold air being pushed down is consequence of warm air moving up. The volume shared by both masses of air, at this level, is finite. So when a volume of air moves Northward, another volume of air has to move Southward. That opens the possibility of seeing warmer temp and colder temp in both sides of the Jet Stream, like those at UK. The question about where can we see patterns of cross latitudinal transport being repeated is what has pointed the attention to blocking patterns. And I propose that those blocking patterns are originated as a consequence of a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation.

(The whole project has reached atmospheric events and synergies throughout 2013 and 2018. See whole index to follow the posterior analyses to the present one discussing, expanding and validating the arguments presented e.g.

State of the Climate

Based on the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream since I started to follow it in 2013 I actually believe that the high SST at the Mediterranean sea and the Barents sea with the low SST at the North central Atlantic are better indicators to understand links between oceanic and atmospheric dynamics than the SST anomalies at the 3.4 Eq. Pacific. Just my opinion.

Nov temp state 2015 by Diego Fdez-Sevilla

Last comments

I am in moody waters here. Those in a position as part of an institution have time, resources and a team of people with whom to validate postures and points of view. I am on my own relying on feedback from out there, and even though I believe in the validity of what I do, I assume my limitations. I can give my personal take on things, like many, but the right way would come from coordinating a multidisciplinary group of people uniting different approaches in validating a unified criteria describing things. So I would invite other scientists to evaluate my approach, data and analyses and add their postures and comments.

—- xxx —-

(This post is part of a more complex piece of independent research. I don´t have founding, political agenda or publishing revenues from visits. Any scientist working in disciplines related with the topics that I treat in my blog knows how to judge the contribution that my work could potentially add to the state of knowledge. Since I am in transition looking for a position in research, if you are one of those scientists, by just acknowledging any value you might see from my contribution, would not only make justice to my effort as independent researcher, but ultimately, it will help me to enhance my chances to find a position with resources to further develop my work.

I believe that the hypothesis that I have presented in previous posts in this blog (here,here and here) could help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering. So please feel free to incorporate your thoughts and comments in a constructive manner.

If you feel like sharing this post I would appreciate to have a reference about the place or platform, by private or public message, in order for me to have the opportunity to join the debate and be aware of the repercussion which might generate d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com)

For anybody interested in the posts related with this discussion here I leave you those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

 

About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Data policy The products processed by "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" are made available to the public for educational and/or scientific purposes, without any fee on the condition that you credit "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" as the source. Copyright notice: © Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD 2013-2019 orcid: orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206 and the link to its source at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress or permanent DOI found at Reearchgate. Should you write any scientific publication on the results of research activities that use Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products as input, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla's PhD Project in the text of the publication and provide an electronic copy of the publication (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). If you wish to use the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products in advertising or in any commercial promotion, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Project and you must submit the layout to Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD for approval beforehand (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). The work here presented has no economic or institutional support. Please consider to make a donation to support the means for making sustainable the energy, time and resources required. Also any sponsorship or mentoring interested would be welcome. Intellectual Property This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! For those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2019, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects, don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access and DOIs found at the Framework and Timeline page and ResearchGate. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2018. Filling in or/and Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/ ***
This entry was posted in Energy Balance, Extreme climatic events, Filling in, Polar vortex and Jet Stream, Water vapour and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

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