Oct 2014. New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)


Oct 2014. New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)

(Citation. Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation. Blog “Filling in or Finding out”. https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com also there is a pdf of this publication available at Researchgate DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4859.3440

This publication was Simultaneously shared at several groups at LinkedIn such as AGU, NOAA, …and also in December 2014 by direct communication with Prof Jennifer Francis by email (in full here.)

(updated 30 June 2016. Two recent peer review publications (2016) agree with the assessments presented in the appraoch shared in this post and the ones following. See section “Communication and articles in agreement with the validity of this theory” at the bottom of this post. See the section “Framework and Timeline” of this blog to check the time line of this research.)

By Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD.CV english and españolResumeInterdisciplinary Skills applied in the line of research presented.- Index for all analyses published. – Shares and Feedback at LinkedIn


New theory proposal


The theory of Arctic Amplification has introduced the considerations over feedback effects associated with temperature, water vapour and clouds due to changes in the surface albedo feedback—the increase in surface absorption of solar radiation when snow and ice retreat—often cited as the main contributor.

The theory that I have developed follows “in alignment” with the work published previously by scientists  Judah CohenMasato Mori, Colin Summerhayes, Coumou and Ted Shepherd. Their work supported the theory of that early snowfall over Asia increases albedo leading to heat retention in the atmosphere provoking Arctic ice to melt. Their approach point to decreasing snow cover as the cause diminishing albedo enhancing heat absorption. Ultimately, their approach theorize that such enhanced capacity of the Arctic to absorb heat would lead to “amplify” atmospheric heat absorption already being fuelled with GHGs. And therefore, such increase in atmospheric temperature would reduce the thermal contrast required for a strong jet stream and consequently originating disturbance in atmospheric weather patterns associated.

What I propose with my hypothesis is that the so called “Arctic Amplification” is a synchronic consequence altogether with other environmental phenomena (ENSO, NAO, etc…) and not the trigger. I defend that “Artic Amplification” is a symptom and not a causation of atmospheric dynamics. Arctic circulation does not amplify a process but on the contrary, it reflects the consequence of absorbing the influence from mid-latitude conditions. (updates can be found in the category polar vortex and jet stream. 26/04/2016)

What I am trying to highlight in my theory are the possible mechanisms which would explain: changes in albedo which support the concept of “Arctic Amplification”, early snowfalls in central Asia, Arctic ice cover meltdown and oceanic increases in salinity and ultimately, the origin of atmospheric blocking patterns and a slow down or “pause” in T raise, unified in single principle: Increasing conc. of CO2 and water vapour induce a decrease in the differential gradients of energy in atmospheric circulation.

I am looking at the implications of having the Arctic circulation not “Amplifying” but “Absorbing” constant increases in atm CO2 and Water vapour. In my approach, instead of looking at what happens in the Arctic as the origin of a chain reaction, I look at what happens in the Arctic just as a side effect (with its own implications) of a more wide process resultant from a reduction between the differential  gradients of energy driving the atmospheric global circulation, being water vapour the carrier of the energy being dispersed all over the atmosphere.

Atmospheric patterns observed.

The moisture gained in the Equator is being introduced in atmospheric circulation at higher latitudes and altitudes fuelling cyclonic events with more strength and depth than we were used to see.

The depth of the systems (like the one on the 21st Oct/14 in the Atlantic) goes from surface level up to 250hPa, interacting with the Jet stream and the Polar vortex leading to a split in the Jet stream towards the Mediterranean sea. This situation has created a disruption in atmospheric circulation triggering early snow fall over locations such as Turkey, Iran and Central Asia (accuweather.com).

Wind Speed at North Atlantic Sea 21 Oct, 4 Nov and 15 Dec 2014. Composition by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Images from Nullchool.net

 Similarly cyclonic events are getting stronger and stationary in location also in the northern Pacific reproducing so-called “Blocking patterns” (Following figures).

1000hPa Wind TPW DiegoFdezSevilla

Similarities in Total Precipitable Water and weather patterns at the North Pacific 13 Feb – 15 Oct 2014. Composition by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Images from Nullchool.net

700hPa Wind TPW DiegoFdezSevilla

Similarities in Total Precipitable Water and weather patterns at the North Pacific 13 Feb – 15 Oct 2014. Composition by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Images from Nullchool.net

UPDATE. Image of North Pacific patterns for wind and TPW at 700 hPa on the 6th Nov and 22nd Dec 2014. Compare with the above. Similarly as in the Winter 13/14, the perturbed flow over the North Pacific is also very clear with two deep  anticyclonic systems, which were and are a persistent feature at this part of the year. (See also, What type of Polar vortex configuration can we expect for this winter? (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla))

250hPa Wind TPW DiegoFdezSevilla

Similarities in Total Precipitable Water and weather patterns at the North Pacific 13 Feb – 15 Oct 2014. Composition by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Images from Nullchool.net

70hPa Wind TPW DiegoFdezSevilla

Similarities in Total Precipitable Water and weather patterns at the North Pacific 13 Feb – 15 Oct 2014. Composition by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Images from Nullchool.net

10 hPa Wind TPW DiegoFdezSevilla

Similarities in Total Precipitable Water and weather patterns at the North Pacific 13 Feb – 15 Oct 2014. Composition by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Images from Nullchool.net

Thus, the North hemisphere might start to see more often a seasonal weakening in the stability of the polar vortex and jet stream, and all the climatic events associated.

What has induced an increase in atmospheric water vapour content?

So far, and among others, I have being exploring the implications of understanding the role of water vapour in a global system under a constant environmental transformation.

Throughout several posts in this blog, I have explored the connections between Solar activity, Biological productivity, Polar vortex, Environmental Resilience, Inland Water Bodies and Water Cycle, Energy Balance and the Influence of Continentality on Extreme Climatic Events. Based on my criteria (always open for corrections) I will share my thoughts on what I believe is what it has induced an increase in atmospheric water vapour content and its implications in atmospheric circulation.

Total Precipitable Water at the North Hemisphere 21 Oct 2014. Composition by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Images from Nullchool.net

Total Precipitable Water at the North Atlantic Sea 21 Oct 2014. Composition by Diego Fdez-Sevilla. Images from Nullchool.net

Solar activity could increase the temperature of the masses getting radiated (water or land). It could increase evaporation from oceans but water vapor needs more factors to be sustained in atmospheric circulation for longer periods of time and reach further in latitudes. Thermodynamic laws dictate the amount of water which can be contained in the atmosphere. More evaporation in a clean sky (low aerosol and green house gasses content) could induce more rain in tropospheric circulation but it wouldn´t stand for long in the atmosphere as the energy within it would dissipate. However, if the amount of greenhouse gasses increases, the energy from the cyclonic event would not feel so greatly the differential gradient in energy with the surrounding so it would not dissipate its energy so easily.

Cyclones diagram

Cyclones diagram at the North Hemisphere

(Update) Based on all my previous research published in this blog and, the arguments pointed out in this assessment, I propose for open evaluation by the scientific community the theory of “Facing a reduced differential energy gradient in atmospheric circulation” and the consequent implications over Weather Patterns, Atmospheric Circulation and Atmospheric Oscillations.

UPDATED 6/Nov/2014

During December and January 2013/14 the pattern of winds over the North East Pacific and North America was very disturbed. The North Pacific jet was deflected a long way north, with a secondary branch extending southwards into the tropical Pacific accentuating the separation of the Pacific and Atlantic jet streams. The effects of this over North America and into the North Atlantic were profound. The deflection of the jet to the north led to colder air being carried south over Canada and the northern US  to enter the North Atlantic jet and establish a stronger than normal temperature gradient at the entrance of the North Atlantic Jet. This acted to strengthen the jet and provide the conditions for active cyclogenesis, which in turn led to a sequence of strong storms across the UK throughout December and January.

Based on my theory, Greenhouse gases store energy which leads to an increase in  global temperature. This increase in T, altogether with synergistic effects of aerosols, allows more water vapor to be contained in the atmosphere, which consequently adds more energy into the atmosphere in form of latent heat and kinetic energy. Therefore, this increase in atmospheric energy being carried and distributed all over the hemisphere would infuse power into atmospheric patterns at the same time that it would also reduce the differential energetic gradient between cyclonic events and their surroundings in order to dissipate the energy carried within. Consequently, the energy of those cyclonic events (Low and High pressures) would persist for longer throughout time, altitude and location. Such scenario would decrease the strength of barriers build upon steep differential gradients like the Polar Jet Stream. Furthermore, it would increase the frequency in which masses of warm air from low latitudes would get introduced in polar regions as well as masses of polar air would move across the Jet Stream across latitudes moving further South. Following the 2nd Thermodynamics law on entropy, having decreased the differential in gradient of energy between cyclonic events and its surroundings would increase the life span of those events. That would induce an increase in the accumulation of energy in form of latent heat, water vapour and wind strength. Such build-up in power, without dissipating the energy contained within, would give cyclonic events enough strength to interfere with atmospheric barriers like the Polar Jet Stream breaking it, and also, would allow them to adopt locations that originate blocking patterns as those we can see as High Pressure Systems situated in the North Pacific Ocean and also in the Atlantic Ocean.

North Atlantic Vertical Atmospheric Circulation

North Atlantic vertical atmospheric circulation in the days 4 Nov and 6 Nov 2014. Composition by DiegoFdezSevilla. Images from Nullschool.

North Pacific vertical circulation DiegoFdezSevilla

North Pacific vertical atmospheric circulation in the days 4 Nov and 6 Nov 2014. Composition by DiegoFdezSevilla. Images from Nullschool.

Broken Jet Stream, Wind Speed and Pattern at NH Atlantic 6 Nov DiegoFdezSevilla

Broken Jet Stream, Wind Speed and Pattern at NH Atlantic and Pacific Oceans 6 Nov/14 DiegoFdezSevilla

This proposed scenario suggests that the amount of energy distributed across the atmosphere has reduced the differential energy gradient between atmospheric events and the surroundings.

Based on observation, one indication pointing to the existent differential energy gradient in the North Hemisphere could be expressed by the kinetic energy carried by Wind Speed (red and green colours). The kinetic energy carried by the Jet Stream is similar to several cyclonic events and secondary streams getting deviated from the Jet stream. As it can be seen in the image taken the 6th of Nov at 250 hPa (below), the Jet Stream has not enough power to keep its position, being pushed and deflected by several cyclonic events in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. But furthermore, it also loses its configuration as a single stream, getting secondary currents moving to the North and also to the South. In fact, over the Atlantic Ocean, part of the current from the Jet Stream goes so far into the South enough to cross over the Equator.

North Hemisphere Jet Stream conditions DiegoFdezSevilla 6Nov14

North Hemisphere Jet Stream conditions and Kinetic energy distribution applying wind speed as indicator (Green  and Red) DiegoFdezSevilla 6Nov14

Indications supporting the theory

Based on my previous research, the forces interacting with the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere and with the weather circulation are linked with the conditions of the atmosphere (greenhouse gasses and aerosols) but also with transformations inland over water bodies, water circulation, land use and land cover. (for more info see related posts)

In July 2014, NOAA published their report for 2013 “State of the Climate: Humidity”:

  • Overall, there was more water vapor than average in the near-surface atmosphere in 2013. The air over the southern and central United States, western Europe, central and east Asia, central South America, southern Africa, and central eastern Australia were drier than the 1981-2010 average. But overall, most regions experienced moister-than-average atmospheric conditions including the midlatitude northern Pacific and northern Atlantic, Southeast Asia, and most of tropical Africa. While the specific humidity—the amount of water vapor–was well above average over land and ocean, the relative humidity—how close the air is to being completely saturated with water vapor—was far below average in 2013, although slightly higher than in 2012. In 2013, below-average saturation dominated midlatitude land masses, whereas the higher latitudes and tropics, especially India, had higher relative humidity than the long-term average. Differences were much greater over land than over the oceans.

    (top) Annual specific humidity over land (orange) and ocean (green) compared to the 1979-2003 average. (bottom) Relative humidity over land areas compared to the 1979-2003 average from two different data sets. While the exact values form the the different sources vary from year to year, most show similar trends over time. Graph by NOAA Climate.gov, adapted from Figure 2.12 in State of the Climate in 2013.

    Overall, water vapor in the surface atmosphere has increased over land and ocean relative to the 1970s (specific humidity is rising), while the atmosphere over land is becoming less saturated (relative humidity is dropping). At first glance, that seems impossible. How can the atmosphere be getting less saturated if there is more water vapor in the air?

    The drivers of this are not yet well understood but differences in rate of warming between land and ocean, and land surface water availability may be factors. Saturation—the point at which water vapor condenses back into water or ice, often forming clouds—depends on the air temperature, and air temperature around the world is also rising. Over many land areas, it’s getting warmer faster than it is getting wetter, which means the air is less saturated (relative humidity goes down), even as specific humidity goes up. (To see more follow “NOAA 2013 State of the Climate: Humidity

  • In a scenario where differential gradients of energy are reduced due to increasing greenhouse gas levels we would expect that the temperature difference between the equator and the poles would drop as the poles warm faster due to the broader distribution of the extra energy stored by the increase in greenhouse gasses and water vapour. And since about the mid 20th Century, the temperature difference between the equator and the poles has indeed dropped.

(Left chart shows North Pole to Equator temperature difference since 1948. Right chart shows South Pole to Equator temperature difference from 1948 to 2011. Note the approximate 3 C temperature swing indicating a faster warming at the poles in both graphs. Data is from the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis model.)

In this theory, the scenario presented is characterized by seeing the differential gradients of energy between latitudes and throughout altitude being reduced as consequence of the broader distribution of the extra energy stored by the increase in greenhouse gasses and water vapour.

Consequently, the energy of those cyclonic events (Low and High pressures) would persist for longer throughout time, altitude and location. Such scenario would decrease the strength of barriers build upon steep differential gradients like the Polar Jet Stream. Therefore, it would increase the frequency in which masses of warm air from low latitudes would get introduced in polar regions as well as masses of polar air would move across the Jet Stream across latitudes moving further South.

250 hPa Temperature Pole - Equator 14 Nov 2014 DiegoFdezSevilla

250 hPa Pockets of air with just 10C degrees Temperature difference with the Equator located in the Pole region 14 Nov 2014 Image composition by DiegoFdezSevilla. Captured from Nullschool.

Such scenario in which GHGs gasses would allow cyclonic events to gain strength enough to interfere with the Jet Stream, and, in such a way as to increase concentration in water vapour inducing flash flooding and latent heat giving strength to wind motion as part of adiabatic processes, seems to be supported by the computer model by NASA looking at how carbon dioxide in the atmosphere travels around the globe.

(Publicado el 17/11/2014) An ultra-high-resolution NASA computer model has given scientists a stunning new look at how carbon dioxide in the atmosphere travels around the globe.

Plumes of carbon dioxide in the simulation swirl and shift as winds disperse the greenhouse gas away from its sources. The simulation also illustrates differences in carbon dioxide levels in the northern and southern hemispheres and distinct swings in global carbon dioxide concentrations as the growth cycle of plants and trees changes with the seasons.

The carbon dioxide visualization was produced by a computer model called GEOS-5, created by scientists at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office.

The visualization is a product of a simulation called a “Nature Run.” The Nature Run ingests real data on atmospheric conditions and the emission of greenhouse gases and both natural and man-made particulates. The model is then left to run on its own and simulate the natural behavior of the Earth’s atmosphere. This Nature Run simulates January 2006 through December 2006.

Communication and articles in agreement with the validity of this theory:

(Nov 2014) “Flight Service Specialist (Aviation Safety) at Nav Canada”

Hi, Diego. Your observations are accurate. I have been watching this shift in retained atmospheric moisture over the past 17 years that I have been working in Aviation Meteorology. The effects have been quite varied here in Canada, due to synoptic variations and our continental mass. I worked in the Western Arctic for 7 years, and for the past 10 years, I’ve been working in Winnipeg, Manitoba, which is located at approximately the geographical centre of North America. During the summer months, Convective activity has definitely increased in both frequency and intensity in the vicinity of Winnipeg. We are seeing precipitation patterns in this region now, that were historically located 500km south of here.”

After this publication in 2014 several other publications in this blog have kept a follow-up over developments which would support the validity of the theory purposed. Therefore, in order to verify the validity of my assessments, I have carrying on looking at atmospheric dynamics, but also, peer review publications which are related. I leave you here links to those more relevant in chronological order (there are comments bellow some of them. Please check them out):

I believe that the hypothesis that I present here can help to understand present and possible future scenarios in atmospheric circulation. However, this is an assessment based on observation which needs to be validated throughout open discussion and data gathering.

I would like to not only be the one proposing this theory but also be involved in this line of research. Since I am in a transition period looking for a position in research, I publicly ask for institutional and economic support to find the means to contribute evaluating the accuracy of this theory.

_________________________________

June 2016. The aim of publishing my work openly is to allow for it to be exposed for an open review. So any constructive feedback is welcome. After a period of time of at least a month from the publishing date on this blog and at LinkedIn, if no comments are found discussing the value of the piece published I then publish it at ResearchGate generating a DOI for posterior references.

In order to protect my intellectual rights, more assessment in depth and the statistical and numerical analyses that I have performed to support my arguments can be discussed at my email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com

The performance of my work as independent researcher, with no institutional and economic support, is limited by my lack of access to resources and economic stability. So far what I have published in this blog is what I have been able to offer with those limitations.

If you find that my work is worthy to be acknowledged, share your thoughts openly and publicly because by sharing public acknowledging over the value of my work is what will overcome the limitations of my cv in order to find the attention from those able to allow me access to a job position or resources to increase the functionality of my research.

PerspectiveSince October 2013 I have been studying the behaviour of the Polar Jet Stream and the weather events associated as well as the implications derived into atmospheric dynamics and environmental synergies.

Many of the atmospheric configurations and weather and climate events we see these days are very similar with the progression followed since 2013. Please take a look at posts addressing those events from previous publications in this blog or look at the categories in the top menu. Also at research-gate. Feedback is always welcomed either in this blog or at my email (d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com). All my work is part of my Intellectual Portfolio, registered under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License,  WordPress.com license and it is being implemented at my profile in researchgate. I will fight for its recognition in case of misuse.

About Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD.

Data policy The products processed by "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" are made available to the public for educational and/or scientific purposes, without any fee on the condition that you credit "Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD" as the source. Copyright notice: © Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD 2013-2019 orcid: orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-0206 and the link to its source at diegofdezsevilla.wordpress or permanent DOI found at Reearchgate. Should you write any scientific publication on the results of research activities that use Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products as input, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla's PhD Project in the text of the publication and provide an electronic copy of the publication (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). If you wish to use the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD products in advertising or in any commercial promotion, you shall acknowledge the Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD Project and you must submit the layout to Diego Fdez-Sevilla PhD for approval beforehand (d.fdezsevilla@gmail.com). The work here presented has no economic or institutional support. Please consider to make a donation to support the means for making sustainable the energy, time and resources required. Also any sponsorship or mentoring interested would be welcome. Intellectual Property This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. By Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD. More guidance on citing this web as a source can be found at NASA webpage: http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/bibliography/citations#! For those publications missing at the ResearchGate profile vinculated with this project DOIs can be generated on demand by request at email: d.fdezsevilla(at)gmail.com. **Author´s profile: Born in 1974. Bachelor in General Biology, Masters degree "Licenciado" in Environmental Sciences (2001, Spain). PhD in Aerobiology (2007, UK). Lived, acquired training and worked in Spain, UK, Germany and Poland. I have shared the outcome from my work previous to 2013 as scientific speaker in events held in those countries as well as in Switzerland and Finland. After 12 years performing research and working in institutions linked with environmental research and management, in 2013 I found myself in a period of transition searching for a new position or funding to support my own line of research. In the current competitive scenario, in order to demonstrate my capacities instead of just moving my cv waiting for my next opportunity to arrive, I decided to invest my energy and time in opening my own line of research sharing it in this blog. In March 2017 the budget reserved for this project has ended and its weekly basis time frame discontinued until new forms of economic and/or institutional support are incorporated into the project. The value of the data and the original nature of the research presented in this platform and at LinkedIn has proved to be worthy of consideration by the scientific community as well as for publication in scientific journals. However, without a position as member of an institution, it becomes very challenging to be published. I hope that this handicap do not overshadow the value of my achievements and that the Intellectual Property Rights generated with the license of attribution attached are respected and considered by the scientist involved in similar lines of research. **Any comment and feedback aimed to be constructive is welcome as well as any approach exploring professional opportunities.** In this blog I publish pieces of research focused on addressing relevant environmental questions. Furthermore, I try to break the barrier that academic publications very often offer isolating scientific findings from the general public. In that way I address those topics which I am familiar with, thanks to my training in environmental research, making them available throughout my posts. (see "Framework and Timeline" for a complete index). At this moment, 2019, I am living in Spain with no affiliation attachments. Free to relocate geographically worldwide. If you feel that I could be a contribution to your institution, team and projects, don´t hesitate in contact me at d.fdezsevilla (at) gmail.com or consult my profile at LinkedIn, ResearchGate and Academia.edu. Also, I'd appreciate information about any opportunity that you might know and believe it could match with my aptitudes. The conclusions and ideas expressed in each post as part of my own creativity are part of my Intellectual Portfolio and are protected by Intellectual Property Laws. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial conditions. In citing my work from this website, be sure to include the date of access and DOIs found at the Framework and Timeline page and ResearchGate. (c)Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD, 2018. Filling in or/and Finding Out the gaps around. Publication accessed 20YY-MM-DD at https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/ ***
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132 Responses to Oct 2014. New theory proposal to assess possible changes in Atmospheric Circulation (by Diego Fdez-Sevilla, PhD)

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